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'Super Tuesday' could clarify or cloud races

Joe Kunkel

Super Tuesday's primaries and caucuses could clarify the positions of Democratic and Republican front-runners, or they could further muddy the waters, says political science faculty member Joe Kunkel.

2008-02-06
By Mark Fischenich, Free Press Staff Writer [published in The Free Press, Mankato, MN, 2/3/2008]

What’s happening in two days is just too darned momen­tous to be adequately described by the term "Super Tuesday," at least according to some political commen­tators.

That term was adequate in past elections — back when there weren’t more than a dozen or so states vot­ing on the same Tuesday in early March, back when the "Super Tuesday" states voted only after as many as 15 other states had already had primaries or caucuses in January and February.

This “ Super Tuesday” is different.

It’s big. So big, in fact, that it’s been renamed "Tsunami Tuesday" and "Super Duper Tuesday" by some political pundits. Minnesota State University politi­cal science professor Joe Kunkel jok­ingly offers an alternative for the big event coming up on Tuesday in Minnesota and 23 other states, the event that could go a long way toward deciding which Democrat and which Republican will be on the presidential ballot Nov. 4.

"I think we should call it 'Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday,'" Kunkel said.

For people who aren’t fond of poli­tics and are already sick of this presi­dential election, the massive hype leading up to Tuesday probably is something quite atrocious. Even for a political science professor, it gets to be a bit much.

“People are interested for sure. People think it’s the only thing I want to talk about,” said Kunkel, who wouldn’t mind a diversion now and then. “Let’s talk about ... gardening.”

No deal. Not with “ Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday” right around the corner.

Nearly half the Republican delegates available nationwide will be decided by voters Tuesday night, along with more than a third on the Democratic side. The states holding primary elections and caucuses include major dele­gate- loaded states such as California, New York and Illinois. There will be people voting from Cape Cod to San Francisco, from International Falls to Atlanta.

“In one week we will have as close to a national primary as we have ever had in this country,” Republican candi­date John McCain said last week. “I intend to win it, and be the nominee of our party.”

No candidate will actually reach the threshold required for nomination, but a strong showing Tuesday could leave each party with a presump­tive nominee heading into future contests in February, March and beyond.

Or it could end up being completely muddled Wednesday morning.

“Part of the problem is it’s going to be a blizzard of spin and everybody will be trying to interpret it,” Kunkel said.

Officials from both political parties in Minnesota say interest is high. DFL spokesman John Stiles said party officials believe they could surpass the caucus turnout during the Vietnam years, when it reached 75,000.

“We’re pretty confident we’re going to break that,” Stiles said. “ So we’re anticipating a record turnout.”

Democrats have a couple of added attractions — a com­petitive fight for the DFL nomination to take on Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, in addition to an historic presidential race where either a woman or an African American will become the first to be the nominee of a major American political party.

Republican Party officials in Minnesota expect to easily surpass the 25,000 caucus­goers who attended in 2004, when Democrats say they had 56,000, but aren’t predicting a turnout to match the DFL expectations.

“We think we’ll see some­where in the neighborhood of 35,000,” said state GOP spokesman Mark Drake. “I would just encourage every­one to come out. It’s a very easy process. I think a lot of people think it’s for political insiders, but it’s really not.”

Kunkel, a Democrat who plans to support Barack Obama, said Tuesday could be a significant night in an important time in recent his­tory.

For the first time in half a century, there’s neither a sit­ting president seeking re- elec­tion or a vice president look­ing to succeed his boss. It’s very uncommon for both par­ties to be without an undis­puted front-runner at this point. And it’s unprecedented for so many states to be weighing in on the same night.

“You’d have to say this is an extraordinarily unusual presidential race,” Kunkel said.

Beyond the political battle, there also seems to be an appetite for change in both political parties, he said. And it may be a year where there’s a major shift in American pol­itics, regardless of which party controls the White House a year from now.

Democrats are looking to put an end to a conservative era even as they seek to elect a president who doesn’t look anything like the first 43. And Republicans may be attempt­ing to create, on the go, a new version of conservatism to replace one that has lost some steam.

“There’s a larger feeling that the conservative jugger­naut has kind of run its course, and a different con­servative coalition is going to have to take its place,” Kunkel said.

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