Minnesota is at risk of losing a voice in Washington, D.C.
Despite population growth in recent years, other states — especially southern and western states — have grown faster, leaving Minnesota on the cusp of losing one of its eight seats in the U.S. House.
State demographer Tom Gillaspy recently projected Minnesota could fall 1,100 people short of what it needs to keep all its seats. A thorough Census count could be enough to change that.
Minnesota last lost a congressional seat after the 1960 Census.
Everyone paying attention knows what is most important in this issue — getting people counted.
Fred Slocum, an associate professor of political science at Minnesota State University, Mankato, said there are three grim realizations should Minnesota lose a seat.
First, and most obvious, is Minnesota would only have seven representatives at the Capitol.
“I would hate to see us lose any of the congressional seats,” said Shawn Groth, Rice County DFL associate chair, “simply for the reason it’s not good for our state to have one less representative.”
Losing a congressional seat forces districts to be redrawn — a process that politicians couldn’t decide after the last Census and ultimately was forced to court.
Slocum said there are myriad theories that could play out if Minnesota loses one of its seats and redistricting is a certainty.
For Republicans, it’s imperative to hold onto the governor’s mansion. Gov. Tim Pawlenty has announced he will not seek re-election.
If Democrats control the Minnesota House, Senate and governor’s office, he said they would likely take full advantage and draw districts in their favor.
“I think the DFL would draw district boundaries in a way that would make it likely that one of the Republican incumbents would be threatened,” he said.
The likely target? He said Democrats would look to dissolve the Sixth District, which is represented by Republican Michele Bachmann.
If Republicans are able to keep the governor’s office, and can overturn the majority in the House and Senate, which Slocum said is highly unlikely, Congressman Tim Walz of the First District, which includes Faribault, would be the target.
Slocum said it’s more likely to have the DFL control the House, Senate and governor’s office because of the majority it holds in the House and Senate. He said as long as Democrats can find an appealing candidate for governor, they should have a good shot at replacing Pawlenty, who won by less than 1 percentage point in 2006.
“That’s what we’re working on this year,” said Lori Sellner, First District DFL chair.
Kathy Dodds, chair of the Rice County Republicans said she would be concerned if Democrats had sole control over drawing districts, because it might mean second district Congressman John Kline might see his northern boundary move into the Twin Cities.
She said Kline draws a fair amount of Independent and Democratic votes, but said a broader district could be detrimental to a bid for re-election.
“If they shifted him more into the metropolitan area, that might not be so,” Dodds said. “Those voters tend to be more liberal.”
Rice County DFLer Groth said he’s not a fan of trying to squeeze politicians out of office based on redistricting.
“If you want to knock someone out, you run a candidate that the various districts would support,” he said. “I think that’s a better way to make a statement.”
The third damaging factor of losing a seat, Slocum said, is Minnesota would lose clout in the presidential contest, because its combined electorate from the U.S. House and Senate seats would drop from 10 to nine.
Gillaspy’s analysis puts the state in a tight race with Missouri, California and Texas for the final seat when the U.S. House of Representatives is reapportioned after the Census. But the demographer said Minnesota has the nation’s best record for counting its population. Even small differences in the quality of counting in rival states could determine who gets the seat.
As it stands now, the U.S. Census Bureau shows that 11 states are in jeopardy of losing one or more congressional seats, while eight look to gain.
Midwest states have lost seats in recent Censuses, and Iowa, Michigan and Illinois are at risk in 2010 as well.
“Minnesota has actually dodged a bullet after the past few Census counts,” Slocum said. “Our time may be up this time around.”
Households will receive the Census form in the mail in mid-March and must return it by April 1.
Finding those who live in college dormitories, group homes, are snowbirds or are new immigrants are all that much more important this year.
The Census Bureau is billing the 2010 form as 10 questions that can be answered in about 10 minutes. It also is used to help distribute nearly $450 billion in federal aid.
Regardless of political affiliation, pundits say losing a seat has much more to do with being a red or blue supporter.
“All parties really need to work together to get this accomplished,” said Dodds of the Census. “I don’t think people would be represented well by the expansion of existing districts to try and incorporate one that had been shut down.”
For more Northfield News stories go to http://www.northfieldnews.com/
Email this article | Permanent link | Topstories news | Topstories news archives
Minnesota State
University, Mankato
Mankato, MN 56001
1-800-722-0544
© 2005-2013 Minnesota State University, Mankato. Minnesota State University, Mankato is a member of
Minnesota State Colleges & Universities system and an affirmative action/equal opportunity university.
